On February 4, 2023, a US military jet shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US after the Pentagon claimed it was spying on sensitive military sites. This incident has raised questions about the motives of China’s actions, its potential threat to US national security, and its impact on US-China relations.

Since the incident sparked public interest, Real Research, an online survey app, conducted a survey on the suspected Chinese balloon over the US territory. In this report, we will analyze the responses to the survey questions that probed respondents’ knowledge and opinions regarding the incident.

The survey included questions about awareness of the incident, social beliefs and judgments about China’s claims, the purpose of the balloon, whether the US was right to shoot it down, and the possible impact on US-China relations.

Here are the key findings of the survey report:

  • A majority (91.41%) were aware of the shooting down of the suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US
  • Over half (52.56%) believe China’s claims that the balloon was for “civilian use”
  • 35.84% believe that it’s highly likely other Chinese balloons are flying over the airspace of other countries

The survey results indicate that a majority (91.41%) of respondents were aware of the shooting down of the suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US on February 4, 2023. However, respondents have various opinions on whether the US was justified in shooting down the balloon.

Was the US Right For Shooting Down the Chinese Balloon?

48.3% believed the US was right to shoot down the suspected Chinese spy balloon over the US. Among those who believed the US was right, the most common reason was that the balloon could have been a national security threat (15.16%).

he-US-was-right-to-shoot-the-Chinese-balloon
Figure 1: Respondents’ opinions on whether the US was right to shoot the Chinese balloon

Other reasons for believing the US was right included: it was likely that sensitive military information was leaked (11.21%), China had no permission to launch a balloon in US airspace (13.39%), and it was justified as a last resort (8.54%).

On the other hand, only 24.06% of respondents believed that the US was not justified in shooting down the balloon. The most common reasons for this belief were that the balloon could have been dangerous (5.62%), it could have been for weather monitoring (7.31%), and it didn’t pose a national security threat (6.46%). A smaller percentage believed that the balloon was China’s property, so the US had no right to shoot it down (4.67%).

The Purpose of the Chinese Balloon

Furthermore, respondents showed varying degrees of belief in China’s claims that the balloon was for “civilian use” and “monitoring the weather.” Over half (52.56%) absolutely believe China’s claims, and around 12% reject them outright.

opinions-on-the-purpose-of-the-Chinese-Balloon
Figure 2: Respondents’ opinions on the purpose of the Chinese Balloon

China alleges that the purpose of the balloon was to monitor the weather. However, the US believes otherwise. When asked about their opinions on the purpose of the Chinese balloon, a quarter (25.31%) of respondents believed it was for China to escalate tensions with the US. Nearly another quarter (22.07%) thought it was a surveillance device conducting espionage operations.

Impacts on US-China Relations

Regarding the potential impact on US-China relations, once proven that the balloon was used for surveillance, 18.83% believed it could increase pre-existing tensions. 16.08% believed that the US would respond with diplomatic measures, while 14.82% believed that the US would take additional military measures to secure its airspace.

Possible-effects-of-the-incident-on-US-China-relations
Figure 3: Possible effects of the incident on US-China relations

It was confirmed that at least three suspected Chinese spy balloons flew over the US undetected during Trump’s presidency. However, on Truth Social, Mr. Trump dismissed the reports as “fake disinformation.”

When the survey probed respondents’ opinions on the matter, over half (51.56%) found it highly likely that there could be a Chinese spy balloon over the US during Trump’s presidency. Additionally, a significant portion (28.02%) thought it was somewhat likely. In contrast, only 3.45% believed that it was highly unlikely.

Finally, when asked about the possibility of other Chinese balloons flying over the airspace of other countries, 35.84% believed that it was highly likely. In comparison, only 8.58% believed that it was highly unlikely.

Conclusion

The survey about the Chinese spy balloon over the US results highlights the significant public interest in and concern about the US-China relationship and potential espionage activities. The results suggest that people closely follow the situation and have varying degrees of trust in the statements made by the US and China. The results also indicate a high level of concern about the possibility of other Chinese balloons flying over the airspace of other countries.

Methodology

Survey TitleSurvey on the Suspected Chinese Balloon Over the US Territory
DurationFebruary 10 – February 17, 2023
Number of Participants10,000
DemographicsMales and females, aged 21 to 99
Participating Countries Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, China (Hong Kong) China (Macao), China (Taiwan), Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Greanada, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Maldives, Maluritania, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar [Burma], Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe.