The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has predicted that the world economy will slow in 2024 due to the strain of wars, still-elevated inflation, and high interest rates.

Highlights

  • 39.85% believe that global economic growth in 2024 will somewhat slow down.
  • 43.53% say despite the sluggish economic growth, recessions would be avoided.
  • The global economy in 2024 was somewhat resilient, despite a series of challenges, claimed 32.55%

Global Economy in 2024

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has predicted that global economic growth will slow down in 2024 due to inflation, high-interest rates, and war. 45.55% were well aware of the predictions, 47.13% were vaguely aware, and 7.32% weren’t aware at all.

The majority believe that global economic growth in 2024 will slow down. In detail, 39.85% believe that global economic growth will somewhat slow down in 2024, 30.93% somewhat believe it won’t, 24.23% claimed it will certainly slow down, and 4.98% opposed.

Figure 1: Agreement on economic growth slowing down in 2024
Figure 1: Agreement on economic growth slowing down in 2024

The OECD estimated that there would be a 2.7% international growth slowdown in 2024, somewhat concerning 55.33% of the survey respondents. 24.93% were strongly concerned, and 19.73% were not concerned at all.

Will the Global Economy in 2024 Bring Recessions?

However, the OECD also projected that despite the sluggish economic growth, recessions would be avoided “almost everywhere.” 43.53% believed that this would be the case, 32.73% were hesitant to make a decision, and 23.73% claimed that their projections wouldn’t be realized.

Are High Inflations the Reason?

The projections also indicated that the persistence of high inflation would affect the global economy in 2024. 54.63% were somewhat concerned about the risk of persistently high inflation in 2024, 28.15% were extremely concerned, and 17.22% weren’t concerned at all.

Figure 2: Concern over the high inflation rates affecting the global economy in 2024
Figure 2: Concern over the high inflation rates affecting the global economy in 2024

Recently, the Federal Reserve in the United States announced increased interest rates, and 45.17% believe that these increases will significantly contribute to the anticipated economic slowdown in 2024. 31.95% weren’t sure of its impact, and 22.88% opposed. 

Figure 3: Opinions on whether the U.S.'s increased interest rates would impact the economic slowdown
Figure 3: Opinions on whether the U.S.’s increased interest rates would impact the economic slowdown

Since early 2020, the world economy has navigated through a series of challenges—the onset of COVID-19, a resurgence in inflation, the Ukraine conflict, and persistently high borrowing rates. 47.68% claimed that, in the face of these challenges, the global economy didn’t show any resilience.

The remaining opinions were that the global economy in 2024 was somewhat resilient (32.55%), moderately resilient (15.95%), and extremely resilient (3.82%).

Methodology

 
Survey TitleIs a Global Recession Coming in 2024?
Duration12 December 2023 – 17 December 2023
Number of Participants6,000
DemographicsMales and females, aged 21 to 99
Participating Countries Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Benin, Bolivia,… Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, China (Hong Kong) China (Macao), China (Taiwan), Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Greanada, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Maldives, Maluritania, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar [Burma], Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe.