According to a new study published in the Lancet Medical Journal, falling fertility rates globally are set to spark a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years, with major implications for the global economy. Real Research, an online survey app, revealed that 50.94% of the respondents were completely aware of the declining fertility rates.

Highlights:

  • 66.24% agree that future fertility trends will reshape the global economy and power dynamics, and require societal reorganization.
  • 64.52% believe that 76% of countries will fall below population replacement rates by 2050, increasing to 97% by 2100.
  • 61.68% of the respondents think the demographic shift will strengthen the position of lower-income countries internationally.

Declining Fertility Rates

The study found that 76% of countries will dip below population replacement rates by 2050 and it also predicted that the number will rise to 97% by 2100. 64.52% of the respondents said they believed this prediction.

population-replacement-rates
Figure 1: If 76% of countries will fall below population replacement rates by 2050

Survey on Declining Fertility Rates Impacting the Global Economy

The report author concluded that future fertility trends will reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power; and will necessitate reorganizing societies. A survey on the declining fertility rates impacting the global economy revealed that 66.24% of the respondents agree with the authors’ statement.

future-fertility-trends
Figure 2: Will future fertility trends reshape the global economy, power dynamics

Global Fertility Rates to Decline

A Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation-funded report stated that because of a continuous drop in global fertility rates from 2050 to 2100, developed countries will be below replacement levels while lower-income countries experience a rise.

A survey on declining fertility rates impacting the global economy revealed that 61.68% of the respondents think the demographic shift will strengthen the position of lower-income countries internationally.

lower-income-countries-global-standing
Figure 3: If the demographic shift will boost lower-income countries’ global standing

Methodology

Survey TitleSurvey on declining fertility rate impacting the global economy
DurationApril 12 – April 21, 2024
Number of Participants5,000
DemographicsMales and females, aged 21 to 99
Participating Countries Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Benin, Bolivia,… Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cambodia, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, China, China (Hong Kong) China (Macao), China (Taiwan), Colombia, Costa Rica, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Gambia, Georgia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Greanada, Guatemala, Honduras, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Ivory Coast, Japan, Jordan, Kenya, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lebanon, Libya, Lithuania, Malaysia, Maldives, Maluritania, Mexico, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique, Myanmar [Burma], Namibia, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Panama, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Slovakia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, Yemen, Zimbabwe.