42.8% Opine U.S. Unemployment Drop Suggests Decent Economy

The latest reports reveal that U.S. unemployment rates are seeing a decrease. Could this possibly mean a fall in the rising unemployment rate in the U.S.? Real Research launched a survey to gain public opinion on the U.S. job market amid fall in unemployment.

Highlights:

• 42.8% feel a decrease in the unemployment rate is indicative of a “decent economy.”
• 57.65% suggest that there will likely be a recession in the U.S. by the end of the year.
• 43.5% are “very satisfied” with the job gains in November 2023.

Labor Statistics Reveal Decrease in Unemployment

The latest job reports from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), released on December 8, 2023, revealed a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for November. The report recorded a dip from 3.9% in October to 3.7% in November 2023.

Survey respondents were asked about their awareness of this; 67.45% were aware, while 32.55% were not aware.

However, what does the aforementioned decrease mean? Could it signify signs of a robust economy? When we asked our respondents, 42.8% said, “Yes, it indicates a decent economy,” while 26.28% said, “Yes, it indicates a strong economy.” Contrastingly, 24.82% felt that the decrease in unemployment rates indicates a weak economy, and 6.1% said, “It’s hard to tell.”

Respondents on the Possibility of a Recession by 2023 End

In October 2023, unemployment rates rose to 3.9% and raised concerns about triggering economic indicators such as the Sahm Rule. The Sahm Rule essentially occurs when the unemployment rate starts rising, often gaining momentum and leading to a recession.

Respondents were subsequently asked if there was a likelihood that a recession could come by the end of 2023. 57.65% said it was ‘very likely’, while 28% said it was likely, and 10.63% were neutral. Only about 2.73% and 0.98% said it was unlikely and very unlikely, respectively.

199,000 New Jobs Created in November, Majority Satisfied?

Reportedly, the job market in the U.S. welcomed 199,000 new jobs, possibly improving conditions in the job market in the U.S. While this number surpassed the consensus-estimated monthly expectation of 172,500, it fell behind the monthly average gain of 240,000 over the 12 months.

Respondents were asked about their satisfaction with the November numbers. 43.5% were very satisfied, 29.95% were satisfied, and 22.63% remained neutral. However, 3.07% and 0.85% were dissatisfied and very dissatisfied, respectively.

Sectors With Highest Job Gains

The BLS revealed sectors with the highest job gains; healthcare, government, and manufacturing, among others. Respondents were asked which of the sectors were most crucial for the economic recovery of the U.S.

The responses revealed the following sectors to be most crucial in the economic recovery of the U.S.: Professional and business services (13.2%), manufacturing (9.18%), government (7.4%), mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (6.88%), among several others.

Overall Health of the Job Market in the U.S.

When asked about the overall health of the job market in the U.S., 26.75% and 17.55% said it was “moderately healthy” and “very healthy,” respectively. 35.47% said it is moderately unhealthy and 20.23% said it is “very unhealthy.”