33% Believe Russia Was the Cause of the Kakhovka Dam Collapse

In southern Ukraine, the recent collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam has caused widespread destruction, flooding, and damage to society. The cause of the collapse remains uncertain, leading to a contentious debate with accusations against Russia.

The incident has exacerbated tensions in the region and raised concerns about the ongoing conflict. While the investigations continue, Real Research, an online survey app, launched a survey on the destruction of Ukraine dam to gauge public opinion on this topic.

Highlights:

• 50.21% agreed with NATO officials’ claims that Russia was behind the explosion.
• 41.96% stated Russia could have orchestrated the destruction of Ukraine dam for conflict advantage.
• 29.64% believed structural failure could be a potential cause.

According to the survey on the destruction of the Ukraine dam, Real Research found that a majority of the respondents (72%) were aware of the Nova Kakhovka detonation on the Dnieper River in Ukraine, and 28% were unaware.

Although there was no thorough investigation, Ukraine’s military and NATO have accused Russia of blowing up the dam, while Russia has blamed Ukraine. Real Research asked the respondents whether they believed NATO’s accusations. The results showed that half of the respondents (50%) agreed, compared to 19% who disagreed, and 31% remained uncertain.

Subsequently, opinions on whether Russia could have orchestrated the dam destruction to gain an advantage in the conflict were as follows: 42% considered it highly likely, 39% believed it was somewhat likely, 8% thought it was somewhat unlikely, 2% believed it was highly unlikely, and 9% were uncertain.

Similarly, 33% of the respondents stated that Russia was behind the destruction of Ukraine dam, whereas 13% stated Ukraine. Meanwhile, 17% stated it might be a structural failure, 13% said other countries, and 24% were unsure.

Opinions Vary on Russia’s Potential Involvement in Dam Destruction for Conflict Advantage

Various sources speculate whether Russia orchestrated the dam destruction to gain an advantage in the ongoing conflict, potentially hindering a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Real Research inquired about the respondents’ opinions on this.

42% believed it was highly likely that Russia was behind it to gain an advantage in the ongoing conflict, and 39% said it was somewhat likely. On the other hand, 8% said it was somewhat unlikely that Russia was behind this and 2% said it was highly unlikely. 9% remained unsure.

Additionally, Real Research inquired whether the dam collapse could be attributed to a potential structural failure, apart from the accusations. 30% said it was somewhat likely, and 20% said it was highly likely.

In contrast, 25% said it was somewhat unlikely, and 13% said it was highly unlikely. Meanwhile, 12% of the respondents remained uncertain.

Ukrainian Involvement

Real Research asked our respondents whether they agreed with Dmitry Polyanskiy’s statement, in which he claimed that there is substantial evidence pointing to Ukrainian responsibility for the incident and that it could have been a profitable act of sabotage for the so-called counteroffensive.

The results indicated that 33% of the respondents agreed with Polyanskiy’s statement, 26% disagreed, and 41 remained uncertain.

External Costs of Destruction of Ukraine Dam

The Zaporizhzhian nuclear power plant is in close proximity to the Nova Kakhovka dam. We asked our respondents whether they were concerned about potential damages to the power plant due to the dam destruction.

Nearly half of the respondents (49%) were concerned, 21% were not concerned, and 30% were uncertain.

Furthermore, the extensive flooding caused by the dam’s destruction has significantly impacted ecosystems in Southern Ukraine. According to our survey results, 48% of respondents believed it was somewhat likely that the ecosystems would make a full recovery, while 30% considered it highly likely.

On the other hand, 18% expressed it was somewhat unlikely, and 4% believed it was highly unlikely.

In March 2023, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin, citing war crimes. Following the destruction of the Ukraine dam, Germany further accused Putin of committing a war crime. Lastly, we asked respondents whether they believed Putin should be held accountable for war crimes by the ICC.

44% said Putin should be held accountable, 22% said otherwise, and 34% remained unsure.